Central bank hikes rate, says tariffs already in place to have modest impact

Bank of Canada has its eye on how widening global trade disputes will impact economy

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday in an economy that it predicts will remain resilient even as it faces an even bigger bite from deepening trade tensions.

The rate hike was the central bank’s first interest rate move in six months and lifted the trend-setting rate to 1.5 per cent, up from 1.25 per cent. It was the bank’s fourth rate increase over the last 12 months.

The decision, a move that will likely prompt Canada’s big banks to raise their prime rates, arrived in the middle of a trade dispute between Canada and the United States that’s expected to hurt both economies.

The bank took the step even as it predicts larger impacts from the widening trade uncertainty, particularly after the United States imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Ottawa’s retaliatory measures. The tariff fight, the bank estimated, will shave nearly 0.7 per cent from Canada’s economic growth by the end of 2020.

However, the bank expects the negative blow of the trade policies recently put in place to be largely offset by the positives for Canada from higher oil prices and the stronger U.S. economy.

“Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest,” the bank said in a statement.

But in addition to steel and aluminum tariffs, Canada is facing a significant trade-related unknown that many believe would inflict far more damage on the economy: U.S. duties on the automotive sector

U.S. tariffs on the auto sector’s integrated cross-border supply chains would have “large impacts on investment and employment,” the Bank of Canada warned Wednesday in its accompanying monetary policy report.

The bank, however, didn’t quantify the possible effects of auto tariffs on Wednesday. Governor Stephen Poloz has signalled in the past that he’s focused on data he can measure rather than the impacts of trade policies that have yet to materialize.

Canadian businesses must also contend with the uncertainty surrounding the difficult renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which talks have stalled.

The Bank of Canada also has its eye on how widening global trade disputes, including an intensifying battle between the U.S. and China, will affect the world’s economy. It warns that “escalating trade tensions pose considerable risks to the outlook” at the global level.

Even with the trade issues, the Bank of Canada is now predicting slightly stronger growth for Canada over the next couple of years, according to updated projections it released Wednesday in its quarterly monetary policy report.

It expects real gross domestic product to grow 2.2 per cent in 2019, up from its April call of 2.1 per cent, and by 1.9 per cent in 2020, compared with its previous prediction of 1.8 per cent. The economy’s growth projection for this year remains at two per cent, the bank said.

Looking ahead, the bank predicts Canadian growth will continue to see bigger contributions from exports and business investment, which were both stronger than expected in the first three months of the year.

At the same time, household spending will represent a smaller and smaller share of overall growth due to the dampening effects of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage rules, it said.

Leading up to the announcement Wednesday, Poloz was widely expected to raise the interest rate following a run of healthy economic numbers, including the Bank of Canada’s own survey on business sentiment, tightened job markets and growth in wages.

Moving forward, the bank said it expects higher interest rates will be necessary over time to keep inflation near its target, however, it intends to continue along a gradual, data-dependent approach.

The country’s inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.5 per cent — above the two per cent mid-point of the bank’s target range — due to temporary factors such as higher gasoline prices before settling back down to two per cent in the second half of 2019.

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Inside the music: step behind the curtain at the venerable Vancouver Island Music Festival

Big Read: VIMF in the Comox Valley exemplifies the spirit of an Island summer music festival

Pride Society of the Comox Valley set to kick off week-long celebration

The organization is celebrating Pride Week with a variety of events to bring the community together.

Cannabis facility planned in Courtenay

Design up to 100,000 square feet

Major private donation to Kus-kus-sum project

Frank and Bobbi Denton, longtime residents of the Comox Valley, have donated… Continue reading

CONTEST: Win a pair of tickets to Sunfest Country Music Festival

Make sure to Like the Comox Valley Record’s Facebook page

BC Games: Day 2 comes to an end

Hundreds of medals have been handed out at the 2018 BC Summer Games in the Cowichan Valley

Bob Castle’s Under the Glacier cartoon for July 19, 2018

Bob Castle’s Under the Glacier cartoon for July 19, 2018… Continue reading

Brush fire breaks out west of Port Alberni

Fire forces partial closure of Highway 4 heading to Ucluelet and Tofino

Courtenay fire department extinguish small structure fire at townhome

The Courtenay Fire Department attended a small structure fire at a home… Continue reading

Accident on Vancouver Island after artillery gun rolls down hill and damages taxi

Witness says accident happend about 1 p.m. Saturday; RCMP investigating

B.C. mining company, involved in 2014 spill, ordered to pay lost wages

Mount Polley Mining Company must pay wages to 26 employees who were laid off without proper notice

Two significant wildfires burning in southeastern B.C.

More than 20 fires were burning in the Southeast Fire Centre as of Saturday afternoon

Volunteers provide the glue that keeps BC Games moving

The 2018 Cowichan Summer Games had more than 2,300 volunteers on hand across Vancouver Island

No Name brand chicken nuggets recalled due to possible salmonella

Canadian Food Inspection Agency says multiple illnesses reported in B.C., Alberta and Ontario

Most Read