Burned trees are shown in Fort McMurray, Alta., in a May 13, 2016, file photo. A new study shows half of Alberta’s boreal forest could disappear by 2100 due to wildfires and climate change.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

Half Alberta’s boreal forest could disappear due to fires and climate change

A new study shows half of Alberta’s boreal forest could disappear by 2100 due to wildfires and climate change.

A study shows half of Alberta’s boreal forest could disappear in just over 80 years due to wildfires and climate change.

The research, published Monday in the journal Ecosphere, gives a glimpse at how vegetation could change based on the current rate of carbon emissions and climate change.

“We found that wildfire could initiate the conversion of approximately 50 per cent of the current boreal forest into grassland or deciduous open forest,” said Diana Stralberg, who did the research as part of her PhD in the biological sciences department at the University of Alberta.

“If you look at even more extreme assumptions about future wildfire, you would get something closer to 75 per cent conversion.”

The study simulated wildfire using a model from Natural Resources Canada and data from the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute to determine what vegetation might grow back under future climates.

Marc-Andre Parisien, a fire research scientist at Natural Resources Canada, said the potential for change is strong.

“Trees are very stubborn,” he said. “Trees tend to want to persist and stay where they are, even though the climate in which they are living is not really suitable any more.

“To really change that vegetation type from a certain kind of forest to something else, you have to kill the trees — whether it’s a chainsaw or a fire or an insect or a flood.”

Parisien, a co-author on the study, said the research looked at changes based on the potential for more wildfire in the coming years.

“We’re integrating a little bit more realism by allowing the vegetation to change after a major disturbance — in this case wildfire,” he said.

Related: 14,000 evacuated due to B.C. wildfires

He noted that it’s already easy to find a lot of dead trees in and around Edmonton.

“The series of droughts of the 2000s have slammed so many aspen and also so many coniferous trees as well — notably white spruce, the nice trees that we have in our river valley here in Edmonton,” said Parisien.

That points to the city already being in a climate that’s more associated with prairies than forests, he said.

“That’s why trees are dying,” he said. “They just cannot get the moisture they need to persist.”

The research, he said, tells the same story on a much broader scale.

“This climate that has supported forests for millenia is basically going beyond that cusp, beyond that point where it can really support trees on the uplands any more.”

The changes could have major implications for the forestry sector in Alberta, said Parisien.

“If you no longer can have these productive forests on the uplands, there’s going to be a hit to this economy.”

Both he and Stralberg said the changes could also have detrimental effects on wildlife, such as songbirds, and other plants.

“It’s implying pretty major changes on the landscape,” said Stralberg. “I know Albertans are really outdoor, nature-loving people and it really means a different landscape in the future.”

RELATED: B.C. sends wildfire crews to Alberta, Ontario

Colette Derworiz, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Courtenay candidates have their say

The 16 people running for Courtenay council gathered Tuesday evening at an… Continue reading

Comox Valley Regional District candidates address agricultural issues

Mid-Island Farmers’ Institute hosts all-candidates meeting

Puff, puff, pass: Cannabis is officially legal across Canada

B.C. has only one bricks-and-mortar marijuana store

Kingfisher Oceanside Resort & Spa wins prestigious award

The annual Tourism Vancouver Island Gala Dinner and Awards Ceremony was held… Continue reading

Workplace weed: what is allowed with cannabis legalization

Can you smoke a joint and then go to work starting Wednesday?… Continue reading

VIDEO: How to roll a joint

The cannabis connoisseur shares his secrets to rolling the perfect joint

Hero campaign raises $1.1 million for Canada non-profits

Lowe’s Canada Heroes campaign was held throughout September

Scope of Hurricane Michael’s fury becomes clearer in Florida Panhandle

Nearly 137,000 Florida customers remain without power from the Gulf of Mexico to the Georgia border

Streamlined pardon process for pot possession convictions in Canada

Feds say legalization is first step towards objectives of getting pot out of the hands of kids and eliminating black market

Boeser tallies in OT as Canucks beat Penguins 3-2

Vancouver wins without star rookie Pettersson

Mayor of Kamloops says ‘history has been made’ with vote on B.C.’s lone pot shop

The store to be run by the province in B.C.’s Interior is opening Wednesday as pot sales become legal across Canada

New bus route to ‘replace’ Greyhound along Trans-Canada Highway

Rider Express Transportation says they will soon begin a bus service from Winnipeg to Vancouver

U.S. pot firm urges Trump to deny Canadian producers ‘competitive advantage’

The challenge for U.S. firms lies in the fact that while recreational cannabis is legal in nine states and medicinal pot in 22 others, it remains illegal under federal law

Government says imprisoned Canadian terror suspects must face consequences

Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale showed little sympathy Tuesday for such individuals who now want to return to Canada

Most Read