Environment and Climate Change Canada’s forecast probability of temperature shows there is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of temperatures on the east coast of Vancouver Island being above normal for September through November. Environment Canada screenshot

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s forecast probability of temperature shows there is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of temperatures on the east coast of Vancouver Island being above normal for September through November. Environment Canada screenshot

‘No silver bullet’ to help drought-like conditions heading into fall in the Valley

Environment and Climate Change Canada recently released probabilistic fall forecast

Despite a few millimeters of rain slated for the Labour Day long weekend, there “is no silver bullet in the forecast” to help with the drought-like conditions throughout the Comox Valley and Vancouver Island.

Bobby Sekhon, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada said while the weekend is looking a bit unsettled, the rain is not looking like a significant precipitation event.

“There is about 5mm set for east to southern Vancouver Island; the west parts and inland Island could see a little bit more,” he explained. “We will take what we can get, but there are still drought-like conditions out there.”

On Aug. 31, the agency released its precipitation probabilistic forecasts for the next three months – an evolution of the meteorological trend throughout the fall weather season.

For Vancouver Island, the probability of above-normal precipitation was between 20 to 30 per cent; however, for the interior and eastern sections of the province, that probability rose to between 50 to 60 per cent.

Sekhon said the Comox weather station on average receives 42mm during the month of September, and that number jumps significantly in October to 123mm. In November, the average rainfall in the Valley is 200mm, which is the wettest month of the year.

In terms of temperature, the average daytime high at the weather station is 19 C, and drops to 13 C in October. As for the forecast, Sekhon said there is a lot of variation in the month ahead. In their temperature probabilistic forecasts, the agency predicts a 60 to 70 per cent probability of forecast temperatures above normal from September to November on the east coast of the Island, with a 10 per cent probability of temperatures being below normal.

On the west coast, that probability increases to between 90 to 100 per cent above normal for the same time period.

As a result of low water levels and warm temperatures, recently thousands of pink salmon have been dying in the Tsolum River in the Valley.

Sekhon explained climate change can have a direct effect on extreme weather, such as droughts impacting fish or heavy precipitation during the wet months.

For more information or to view the detailed seasonal forecast predictions, visit weather.gc.ca/saisons.



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