President Donald Trump speaks during a bill passage event on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, to acknowledge the final passage of tax overhaul legislation by Congress. While they have slightly differing views on the landmark tax cuts just adopted in the U.S., and their potential effect on Canada, some of the country’s leading fiscal-policy experts agree on one thing. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP, Evan Vucci

U.S. tax cuts: Fiscal pros weigh in on how Canada should respond

In short: Don’t expect Canada to engage in a corporate-tax-cut-war with the U.S.

While they have slightly differing views on the landmark tax cuts just adopted in the U.S., and their potential effect on Canada, some of the country’s leading fiscal-policy experts agree on one thing.

In short: Don’t expect Canada to engage in a corporate-tax-cut-war with the U.S. That’s according to three prominent fiscal experts contacted by The Canadian Press as the U.S. passed a bill that will make it cheaper to do business down south.

Kevin Page, Jack Mintz, and Kevin Milligan all agreed Canada has different policy tools to respond. And they expressed doubt the likeliest tool involves taking a chainsaw to corporate tax rates.

The University of Calgary’s Mintz believes Canada should worry about its neighbour’s tax reform; he’s expressed it in National Post pieces with titles like, “Trump’s tax tsunami is about to wallop Canadian jobs and investment.”

His view is that for several decades Canada had two business advantages: lower corporate taxes, and free trade. Now the taxes are about equal, and free trade is in jeopardy. He said Canadian businesses also face new challenges, like carbon taxes; while the U.S. eliminates regulations.

But he said Canadian policy-makers can respond with a variety of solutions. One is tax rates. Others include simplifying regulation, or designing tax policy to benefit investment, say, by steering the proceeds of carbon taxes back to businesses.

“There are a gamut of different policies,” he said in an interview.

“It’s wrong to think that a single nugget is going to solve, deal, with the issue.”

He suggests Canadians seek some clues in an annual World Bank document. In the bank’s annual Doing Business report, Canada scores high in several places — it’s No. 2 in the world for ease of starting a business.

But it points to sore spots.

Overall, Canada ranks as the 22nd-best country to run a business, sandwiched between Lithuania and Malaysia — 13 spots behind its neighbour, the U.S. It’s 57th in dealing with construction permits, and 108th in getting electricity.

Page, Canada’s first parliamentary budget officer, also doubts copycat tax cuts are coming.

“I think it is unlikely Canada will try to match U.S. tax cuts,” Page said in an email.

“Tax reform pressures will likely build in Canada over the next few years leading up to the 2019 elections but it is more likely to have a broader agenda than tax reductions , including fairness, sustainability, growth, (the) environment.”

He said corporate income taxes are one important cost of doing business — but that companies look at a variety of things: dividend, capital and payroll taxes; regulations; and production costs like wages.

He said Canada might even draw some early benefit from the U.S. tax bill. That’s because economic growth in the U.S. tends to spill into Canada. Scotiabank’s models estimate that for every percentage point of growth in the U.S., there’s a half-point growth in Canada.

Page said he expects a short-term positive impact for Canada. But he said that dissipates as the bill’s less-desirable aspects kick in — like the $1.5 trillion added to the debt, Republicans’ talk of offsetting that through social-spending cuts, growing inequality, and the diminished fiscal manoeuvring room whenever another recession hits.

He offers a term to describe the temporary boost for Canada: ”A sugar high.”

Kevin Milligan, a UBC economist who has advised the Trudeau Liberals on tax reform, said he’s not nearly as concerned about this bill as he would be if it gave U.S. businesses a permanent tax advantage of, say, five percentage points, rather than simply putting the countries at similar rates.

“Then we’d be in a world where we’d be really, perhaps, in trouble — where you’d see firms wanting … to shift profits out of Canada. The fact that we’re tied, at about the same rate, means there’s no incentive to move profit,” he said.

“That’s why I don’t have apocalyptic concerns that some others might have expressed.”

He said businesses will continue making choices based on numerous factors, like the cost of providing health insurance to employees, a significant issue in the U.S.; good transit links; pleasant communities; workforce training; and the ability to attract talented immigrants — an area where Canada has gained some advantage, he said, given the current U.S. political climate.

“So that’s the question,” Milligan said.

“Are we best off getting into a tax-rate competition with the U.S., or competing on other grounds?”

Alexander Panetta, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Commemorative plaque stolen from Sandwick Cairn in Courtenay

The peacekeepers plaque has been stolen from the Sandwick Cairn on Dingwall… Continue reading

Painter Fiona Ackerman starts North Island College fall 2019 Artist Talk Series

Acclaimed Vancouver-based painter Fiona Ackerman will join North Island College as the… Continue reading

Comox Valley Record readers ‘Take us Along’ on holidays

When it comes to spreading the news, readers of the Comox Valley… Continue reading

Teachers protest to get Courtenay-Comox MLA’s attention

Representatives concerned about class size and composition issues

Some Cumberland businesses closing for climate strike rally Friday

A Climate Strike Cumberland Solidarity Rally is set for outside the Cumberland municipal office

PHOTOS: Young protesters in B.C. and beyond demand climate change action

Many demonstaers were kids and teens who skipped school to take part

Former B.C. lifeguard gets house arrest for possession of child porn

Cees Vanderniet of Grand Forks will serve six months of house arrest, then two years’ probation

Courtenay college uses former hospital space

North Island College is broadening its horizons to St. Joseph’s Hospital in… Continue reading

Crown alleges resentment of ex-wife drove Oak Bay father to kill his daughters

Patrick Weir alleged in his closing arguments that Andrew Berry is responsible for the deaths of his daughters

‘I’d do it again,’ says B.C. man who swam naked, drunk in Toronto shark tank

David Weaver, of Nelson, was drunk when he went to Ripley’s Aquarium in Toronto on Oct. 12 2018

How to react to Trudeau’s racist photos? With humility, B.C. prof says

‘We are now treating racism as a crime that you cannot recover from’

Victoria man spots online photo of his totem pole 11 years after it was stolen

Mark Trueman restored the pole himself before it was stolen off of his property in Duncan

VIDEO: Fire destroys Williams Lake strip club targeted by past arson attempts

Diamonds and Dust Entertainment Lounge destroyed by fire, as well as New World Tea and Coffee House

Trudeau seeks meeting with Singh to apologize for blackface, brownface photos

‘I will be apologizing to him personally as a racialized Canadian,’ Trudeau said Friday

Most Read