According to polling data from the Dogwood Initiative, the Courtenay-Alberni riding is a "statistical tie" between NDP candidate Gord Johns and Conservative candidate John Duncan. Liberal candidate Carrie Powell-Davidson and Green candidate Glenn Sollitt have both posted gains, but remain in third and fourth place.
Last month, Johns had the most voter support, though an Insights West poll indicated NDP support was on the slide. May numbers indicated the party held about a 13-point lead. By September, however, Duncan had climbed to within six points.
"Voters in the riding of Courtenay-Alberni appear to be focussed on national trend-lines that have seen support bleed away from the NDP to the Liberals and Greens since the beginning of the election," said Dave Mills, Dogwood Initiative field organizer for Northern Vancouver Island. "Two polls released within a day of each other sampling just under 1,100 voters in this riding tell the story of a static Conservative Party catching up to the NDP as the Liberal surge swings voters their direction. The results indicate that neither the Liberals nor the Greens have a realistic chance of winning this riding but their momentum may be enough to deny the NDP a victory. The fate of the candidates remains in the hands of the quarter of all voters who have to (a) show up, and (b) decide whether or not they want change."
The Dogwood Initiative is a non-partisan citizen advocacy organization that is tracking voter interest in the buildup to Monday's federal election.
The Courtenay-Alberni Poll conducted by Insights West sampled 400 respondents by telephone between Oct. 5 and 10.
The Dogwood Initiative says voter turnout at advance polls is up 71 per cent compared to 2011.